Will Birmingham Stallions be the UFL champion
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$418
5 contracts
Closes
Jun 28, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will DC Defenders be the UFL champion
Will DC Defenders be the UFL champion?: DC Defenders
KXUFLCHAMP-26-DC
Cluster 2
Will Louisville Kings be the UFL champion
Will Louisville Kings be the UFL champion?: Louisville Kings
KXUFLCHAMP-26-LOU
Cluster 3
Will Columbus Aviators be the UFL champion
Will Columbus Aviators be the UFL champion?: Columbus Aviators
KXUFLCHAMP-26-CLB
Cluster 4
Will Dallas Renegades be the UFL champion
Will Dallas Renegades be the UFL champion?: Dallas Renegades
KXUFLCHAMP-26-DAL
Cluster 5
Will Houston Gamblers be the UFL champion
Will Houston Gamblers be the UFL champion?: Houston Gamblers
KXUFLCHAMP-26-HOU
Analysis
The 27% probability reflects market expectations that Birmingham will win the UFL championship this season. This estimate is shaped by the team's performance relative to other UFL franchises and their remaining schedule strength. The primary catalyst for this probability would be playoff performance, as the UFL typically concludes its championship in late spring or early summer. Teams with stronger win-loss records and head-to-head results against competitors would see their probabilities shift accordingly as the postseason approaches. Market participants are pricing in current roster quality, coaching decisions, and injury status to form this assessment.
- ›Birmingham's current win-loss record and conference standing compared to other UFL teams
- ›Team roster depth and key player health status entering the playoff period
- ›Recent performance trends and point differential in games against playoff contenders
- ›Strength of schedule for remaining regular season games relative to competition
- ›Historical UFL championship win rates for teams at similar regular-season performance levels
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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