What is the current probability for "Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 25¢ (25% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2027. 561 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 217.9% and 19.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme confidence in Sue Altman's nomination odds at 98¢, but the extremely thin liquidity of $1,279.78 open interest and wide 7¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect genuine market depth—the 259.3% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high for such a near-certain outcome, indicating potential mispricing or illiquidity premium rather than true probability.

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25¢

Bid/Ask 23/30¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $300·OI $1,586.78·Closes Nov 3, 2027·561d remaining

KXNJPRIMARY-12D26-SALT

7-day price16 snapshots · 19 regime

24¢23¢ current

Apr 183¢Apr 21

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows extreme confidence in Sue Altman's nomination odds at 98¢, but the extremely thin liquidity of $1,279.78 open interest and wide 7¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect genuine market depth—the 259.3% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high for such a near-certain outcome, indicating potential mispricing or illiquidity premium rather than true probability. The sharp 9¢ price jump over seven days combined with low volume and a 563-day runway to the 2026 election creates cliff risk, as late-breaking political developments could dramatically shift nomination dynamics in a market where few shares are actually trading.

Resolution rules

If Sue Altman wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NJ-12 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 217.9%

IY (No) 19.4%

Adj IY 152%

CRI 3

RV 606%

VR 3.60

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	217.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	19.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	152%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	606%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.60	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.30	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:31:35 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNJPRIMARY-12D26-SALT yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →