Will Tesla Inc. report above 380000 total production in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 73% probability that Will Tesla Inc. report above 380000 total production in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 73¢ on Kalshi, closing August 21, 2026. The market has surged dramatically from 40¢ to 62¢ over seven days, now pricing in a 66% probability that Tesla will exceed 380,000 units in Q2 2026, yet the extremely asymmetric yield profile (612% on the No side versus 135.5% on the Yes side) suggests significant disagreement about this outcome's likelihood.
Analysis
The market has surged dramatically from 40¢ to 62¢ over seven days, now pricing in a 66% probability that Tesla will exceed 380,000 units in Q2 2026, yet the extremely asymmetric yield profile (612% on the No side versus 135.5% on the Yes side) suggests significant disagreement about this outcome's likelihood. With only $793 in open interest and an 8¢ spread against $963 in daily volume, liquidity is thin relative to recent price movement, and the extraordinarily high realized volatility of 1205% indicates this market experiences outsized swings that may not reflect fundamental conviction. The approaching August 2026 expiry (127 days) combined with a neutral regime and low information arrival rate (0.4/h) suggests the market may be pricing in event risk or earnings announcements rather than steady-state fundamentals.
Resolution rules
If Tesla Inc. reports above 380000 total production in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTSLA-26JULPROD-380000.0 yes 100