Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.50% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?

This mortgage rate market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 61¢ spread despite $12.6k open interest, suggesting the 55¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The realized volatility of 1956% and asymmetric implied yields (172.5% for "No" vs 115.4% for "Yes") indicate significant uncertainty, though the neutral regime and minimal 7-day price movement (54¢ to 55¢) suggest the market has stabilized around fair value. With 259 days to expiry and current mortgage rates well below 5.50%, the 55% probability appears reasonable but should be treated cautiously given the illiquidity and potential for sharp repricing on any volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.

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