Will the brent crude oil close price be above 101.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above 101.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market displays extreme volatility metrics (35,573% realized volatility, 22,297% implied yield on Yes) with minimal liquidity ($1,880 open interest, $788 daily volume) and a wide 25¢ spread, suggesting low confidence in the 58¢ price despite the neutral regime.
Analysis
This market displays extreme volatility metrics (35,573% realized volatility, 22,297% implied yield on Yes) with minimal liquidity ($1,880 open interest, $788 daily volume) and a wide 25¢ spread, suggesting low confidence in the 58¢ price despite the neutral regime. The contract expires in just 5 days with Brent crude needing to close above $101.99/bbl—currently trading around $80-85—requiring an implausible 20%+ rally in a short timeframe, which the low information arrival rate (3.4/h) doesn't support. The dramatic price movement from 4¢ to 25¢ over seven days and elevated cliff risk (3/10) indicate this is likely a thin, speculative position rather than a reliable market signal.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil using the BRENTN6(July 2026) contract on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 101.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T101.99 yes 100