Will the brent crude oil close price be above $112.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above $112.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 13,838% implied yield on the Yes side despite only a 16¢ price, suggesting the contract may be illiquid or subject to technical issues rather than reflecting genuine market expectations.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 13,838% implied yield on the Yes side despite only a 16¢ price, suggesting the contract may be illiquid or subject to technical issues rather than reflecting genuine market expectations. The sharp 7-day decline from 29¢ to 16¢ combined with low 24-hour volume of $416 and a 10¢ spread indicates thin liquidity that could amplify price swings, making this contract risky for position-taking with just 14 days to expiry. The 429% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk (5/10) signal this is a highly speculative bet where Brent would need to rally roughly 8% from current levels to clear the $112.99 strike.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 112.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTMON-26APR3017-T112.99 yes 100