Will the brent crude oil close price be above 73.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 97% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above 73.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 97¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume and open interest) and a 16¢ spread, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 32,680% implied yield on the "No" side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume and open interest) and a 16¢ spread, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 32,680% implied yield on the "No" side. The sharp 94¢ to 83¢ price decline over seven days combined with 1,244% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 5 suggests significant uncertainty, though with only 5 days to expiry, the threshold of $73.99/bbl appears well below current Brent levels, making a "Yes" resolution highly probable if the market were liquid enough to reflect true pricing. The 4.6 information arrivals per hour indicate active news flow, but without meaningful trading activity, this market lacks credibility for decision-making.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil using the BRENTN6(July 2026) contract on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 73.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T73.99 yes 100