Will the brent crude oil close price be above 81.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 93% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above 81.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 93¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (98%) that Brent crude will exceed $81.99/bbl by April 2026, reflecting a threshold well below recent trading levels, yet the astronomical 75,148% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or liquidity constraints on the losing side.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (98%) that Brent crude will exceed $81.99/bbl by April 2026, reflecting a threshold well below recent trading levels, yet the astronomical 75,148% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or liquidity constraints on the losing side. With only $163.3 in 24-hour volume against $465.3 open interest and a 6¢ spread on a 98¢ price, the market shows thin liquidity that may not support the extreme probability assessment, particularly given the 969% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 10 indicating potential sharp moves near expiration in just 5 days.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil using the BRENTN6(July 2026) contract on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 81.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T81.99 yes 100