Will the brent crude oil close price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 72% probability that Will the brent crude oil close price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 72¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. The market is pricing an 89% probability that Brent crude will close above $89.99/bbl on April 24, 2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (1,862% for Yes vs.
Analysis
The market is pricing an 89% probability that Brent crude will close above $89.99/bbl on April 24, 2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (1,862% for Yes vs. 29,790% for No) and elevated realized volatility of 2,450% suggest significant mispricing or tail risk concentration. With only $2,115 in open interest and a 10¢ spread across just 5 days to expiry, liquidity is thin and the market appears vulnerable to sharp reversals, particularly given the 55¢ price surge over the past week (24¢ to 79¢) and a Cliff Risk Index of 4 indicating elevated binary event risk. The high information arrival rate of 3.7/hour combined with neutral regime conditions suggests active repricing is ongoing, making this a speculative positioning rather than a fundamental valuation.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for brent crude oil using the BRENTN6(July 2026) contract on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 89.99 USD/Bbl, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRENTW-26APR2417-T89.99 yes 100