What is the current probability for "Will the Fed cut rates 3 times?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 8¢ (8% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the Fed cut rates 3 times?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1906.8% and 10.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the Fed cut rates 3 times?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the Fed cut rates 3 times?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will the Fed cut rates 3 times?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in an extremely low probability of three Fed rate cuts over the next 259 days, with the Yes contract at just 8¢ offering an extraordinary 1,619% annualized yield—a stark contrast to the No side's modest 12.2% yield.

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8¢

Bid/Ask 7/8¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $109·OI $153,430.49·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T3

7-day price25 snapshots · 30 regime

12¢7¢ current

Apr 87¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing in an extremely low probability of three Fed rate cuts over the next 259 days, with the Yes contract at just 8¢ offering an extraordinary 1,619% annualized yield—a stark contrast to the No side's modest 12.2% yield. Volume is thin at $4,907.53 daily against $152,633.55 open interest, and the price has declined 20% over the past week from 10¢ to 8¢, suggesting deteriorating conviction in the three-cut scenario as market expectations have shifted toward fewer cuts. The high cliff risk index of 12 and extreme yield asymmetry indicate this is a tail-risk bet with binary resolution characteristics rather than a balanced probability market.

Resolution rules

If the Fed cuts 3 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1906.8%

IY (No) 10.8%

Adj IY 953%

CRI 13

EE 4.000

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1906.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	10.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	953%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	4.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:32:11 PM

SF edge 5.0¢ noObservability mediumEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +5¢thesis — Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh co

Has thesisIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T3 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →