Will the Fed cut rates 1 times
Leader sits at 78% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Exactly 0 cuts
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Exactly 1 cut
Spread
62pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$21K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
189 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Fed cut rates
Analysis
This probability measures whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates exactly once during 2026. The 54% figure reflects market expectation that no cuts will occur, suggesting traders view current monetary policy as appropriately restrictive. The market is pricing in highly divergent scenarios: a 4% probability of a June 2026 cut signals minimal near-term easing expectations, while the 46% probability assigned to any cuts before 2027 indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether the Fed pauses rate cuts or holds steady throughout 2026. The primary drivers are inflation trajectories and labor market strength; persistent inflation or robust employment would support the zero-cut scenario, while economic weakening or disinflation could trigger multiple reductions. The June 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting represents the most immediate catalyst for probability shifts.
- ›June 2026 FOMC meeting is priced at only 4% probability for a 25bps cut, indicating market consensus expects no imminent action
- ›The zero-cuts contract (54%) outprices any specific multi-cut scenario, suggesting traders view extended pause as baseline outcome
- ›Inflation data releases between now and June 2026 will be the primary driver of probability movement, particularly PCE and CPI reports
- ›Labor market indicators including employment reports and wage growth will influence whether the market maintains the restrictive-hold view
- ›The 46% probability for any cuts before 2027 creates an asymmetric distribution where most non-zero scenarios cluster at 0 cuts rather than spreading across 1, 2, or 3-cut outcomes
What moved the line
- Jun 18Exactly 0 cuts↑9pp68→77¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Exactly 0 cuts↓3pp77→74¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
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- What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 16% · 2d
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- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)last 56% · 7d
- Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)last 75% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In fed rate
Related reading
Fed Holds Steady: No Rate Action Expected in July
The market is fully priced for a Fed hold in July, with the 'no hike' contract at 75¢ and a 25bps hike at 24¢. The probability of no cuts by year-end is also 75%, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' narrative.
Fed: July hike priced at 23¢, 0 cuts by year-end at 78¢ as inflation persists
Fed rate markets show strong hawkish sentiment: July hike at 23¢, cut at 1¢. Year-end: 78% chance of 0 cuts, 16% for 1 cut. Gas price markets above $3.90 confirm inflation persistence, supporting the 'no easing' view.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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