Will the heating oil close price be above 4.099 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will the heating oil close price be above 4.099 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with zero 24-hour volume, a massive 33¢ spread, and an implausible 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side—suggesting the 30¢ price may reflect illiquidity rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with zero 24-hour volume, a massive 33¢ spread, and an implausible 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side—suggesting the 30¢ price may reflect illiquidity rather than genuine probability assessment. The realized volatility of 2,037% and dramatic 7-day price collapse from 25¢ to 3¢ indicate this contract has experienced severe mispricing or technical issues, with only $212.94 in open interest across 12 days to expiration. The neutral regime and 0.9/h information arrival rate suggest no fundamental catalysts are driving the market, making the extreme yield metrics unreliable for actual probability estimation.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is || Above/Below/Between/At least|| 4.099 USD/Gal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOILMON-26APR3017-T4.099 yes 100