Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 3% and 6%?
Prediction markets currently give a 75% probability that Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 3% and 6%?. This contract trades at 75¢ on Kalshi, closing April 21, 2027. The market is pricing in only a 27% chance that Virginia's 2026 redistricting amendment passes by a 3-6% margin, despite substantial Yes-side yield of 281%, suggesting either significant skepticism about this narrow outcome band or potential mispricing given the amendment's binary nature.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 27% chance that Virginia's 2026 redistricting amendment passes by a 3-6% margin, despite substantial Yes-side yield of 281%, suggesting either significant skepticism about this narrow outcome band or potential mispricing given the amendment's binary nature. The extreme realized volatility of 818% and vol ratio of 4.88 indicate this contract has experienced wild swings, with the price climbing 6 cents over seven days, though modest 24-hour volume of $1,208 and a 2-cent spread raise liquidity concerns for position sizing. With 370 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 1.5 events per hour, the market remains in neutral regime (0.409 score), suggesting traders are still calibrating expectations as the amendment campaign develops.
Resolution rules
If the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment falls between 3% and 6%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMOVVAREDISTRICT-26APR21-YES-P4 yes 100