Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be exactly 0 governors after the 2026 midterms
Leader sits at 69% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Democratic Party
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Republican Party
Spread
56pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$484
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
99 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors
Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between 1 and 50 governors after the 2026 midterms?: Republican Party
KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-R1
Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms?: Democratic Party
KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-R-50
Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be exactly 0 governors after the 2026 midterms?: Tie
KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-E0
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 54% probability that Democrats will hold a significant governorship advantage after the 2026 midterm elections, with a near-zero chance of an exact tie. Currently, Democrats control 27 governorships and Republicans control 23, giving Democrats a +4 advantage. The market's lean toward Democratic gains reflects expectations about which seats are competitive this cycle. The main drivers are the number of Republican-held seats in purple or lean-Democratic states versus Democratic-held seats in lean-Republican territory. The November 2026 general election will directly resolve this outcome, with results determining the final governorship count and the numerical difference between the parties.
- ›Current seat count: 27 Democratic governors vs. 23 Republican governors (+4 Democratic advantage)
- ›Competitive races identified in purple states like Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania where seat control could shift
- ›Structural factors including the party distribution of governorships expiring in 2026 and each state's electoral lean
- ›Historical midterm patterns showing whether the party holding the presidency gains or loses gubernatorial seats
- ›Early polling and fundraising data for individual governorship races in the most competitive states
What moved the line
- Sep 23Democratic Party↑6pp64→70¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Republican Party↓4pp24→20¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Democratic Party↑3pp59→62¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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