Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach 270 electoral votes before 2032?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach 270 electoral votes before 2032?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2032. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 7-year timeframe, suggesting minimal trader interest in NPVIC adoption odds.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 7-year timeframe, suggesting minimal trader interest in NPVIC adoption odds. The 0¢ price reflects near-zero conviction that the compact will reach 270 electoral votes by 2032, though the recent price movement from 2¢ to 8¢ indicates some modest bullish sentiment has emerged. The 201.3% implied yield on the Yes side combined with the 12 Cliff Risk Index score suggests this is a highly speculative, low-probability event with significant uncertainty around binary outcomes.
Resolution rules
If states that have enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact possess at least 270 electoral votes before Jan 1, 2032, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXECCOMPACT-30-32 yes 100