Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 50% and 60% on Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 50% and 60% on Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 5583% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 8¢ price dramatically undervalues the probability of a 50-60% China tariff by July 2026 relative to current policy trajectories.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 5583% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 8¢ price dramatically undervalues the probability of a 50-60% China tariff by July 2026 relative to current policy trajectories. The zero 24-hour volume combined with tight $1,889.88 open interest indicates severe illiquidity that likely explains the distorted pricing, making this a high-risk arbitrage opportunity rather than a reliable probability estimate. The recent 60% price appreciation (5¢ to 8¢ over 7 days) and moderate cliff risk score of 12 suggest some market participants are beginning to recognize the mispricing, though the neutral regime score indicates broader uncertainty about tariff policy direction.
Resolution rules
If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 50 to 60%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-55 yes 100