Will there be more than 1 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 76% probability that Will there be more than 1 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 76¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $36.11 open interest, making the 55¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $36.11 open interest, making the 55¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The massive spread (26¢) and inverted yield structure—where the "No" side offers 229% annualized return versus 111% for "Yes"—suggests significant uncertainty and possible mispricing due to thin order books. With 229 days to expiry and realized volatility at 140%, this contract carries substantial cliff risk despite the neutral regime score, making it suitable only for sophisticated traders comfortable with illiquid positions.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 1 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T1 yes 100