Will there be more than 14 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that Will there be more than 14 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. The market is pricing a 57% probability of exceeding 14 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026, but the extremely high realized volatility of 846% and vol ratio of 6.95 suggest significant uncertainty and potential mispricing.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 57% probability of exceeding 14 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026, but the extremely high realized volatility of 846% and vol ratio of 6.95 suggest significant uncertainty and potential mispricing. The Yes side offers an exceptional 283% implied yield, though this must be weighed against the thin liquidity ($846 open interest) and wide 21¢ spread, which limits the practical ability to capitalize on the opportunity. With 229 days to resolution and only $545 in daily volume, this market lacks sufficient depth for meaningful position-building, though the recent 6¢ price increase over seven days indicates growing trader interest in the higher hurricane scenario.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 14 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T14 yes 100