Will there be more than 20 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will there be more than 20 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $30 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 43¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $30 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 43¢ price potentially unreliable. The 3822.7% implied yield on the Yes side is a red flag indicating the market is severely mispriced or illiquid rather than reflecting genuine forecast confidence—the dramatic 7-cent price drop over seven days (from 11¢ to 4¢) further suggests thin order books rather than fundamental repricing. With 229 days to expiry and a 27¢ spread, this market lacks the depth needed for confident analysis, though the 43% probability aligns roughly with historical Atlantic hurricane frequency (20+ hurricanes occurred in 2005 and 2020, making it a rare but plausible outcome).
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 20 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T20 yes 100