What is the current probability for "Will there be more than 4 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 38¢ (38% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 2, 2026. 216 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will there be more than 4 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 287.9% and 99.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will there be more than 4 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will there be more than 4 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Will there be more than 4 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. The market is pricing a 46% probability for above-average Atlantic hurricane activity in 2026, but the extremely wide 15¢ spread and minimal $80 daily volume suggest thin liquidity and unreliable price discovery.

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38¢

Bid/Ask 37/38¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $9.92·OI $887.95·Closes Dec 2, 2026·216d remaining

KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T4

7-day price189 snapshots · 9 regime

39¢37¢ current

Apr 814¢Apr 29

Analysis

13d ago

The market is pricing a 46% probability for above-average Atlantic hurricane activity in 2026, but the extremely wide 15¢ spread and minimal $80 daily volume suggest thin liquidity and unreliable price discovery. The asymmetric implied yields (355% for Yes vs. 72% for No) indicate significant market uncertainty, though the neutral regime score and modest realized volatility of 200% suggest this isn't driven by recent dramatic price swings—rather, fundamental disagreement about 2026 hurricane frequency with nearly 11 months until resolution.

Resolution rules

If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 4 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 287.9%

IY (No) 99.3%

Adj IY 280%

CRI 2

RV 1197%

VR 5.72

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	287.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	99.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	280%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1197%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	5.72	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.03	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Computed

4/30/2026, 7:34:02 AM

Observability lowEvent type weather

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 7:38:56 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T4 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →