Will there be more than 5 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 83% probability that Will there be more than 5 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 83¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. This market is pricing in an 83% probability of exceeding 5 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026, but the extreme illiquidity ($80.28 open interest, $0 24h volume) and 21¢ spread make this price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an 83% probability of exceeding 5 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026, but the extreme illiquidity ($80.28 open interest, $0 24h volume) and 21¢ spread make this price potentially unreliable. The asymmetric implied yields (101.8% for Yes vs. 249.1% for No) combined with 165% realized volatility suggest significant uncertainty despite the high headline probability, with the No side offering substantially better risk-adjusted returns at 249%. With 229 days to expiry and a recent sharp 9¢ rally from 52¢ to 61¢, this appears to be a thinly-traded market where small positions could move prices substantially.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 5 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T5 yes 100