Will there be more than 9 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Will there be more than 9 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. The market is pricing in a 40% probability of exceeding 9 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026, but the extreme 3,821% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe illiquidity with only $62.64 open interest and a wide 36¢ spread.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 40% probability of exceeding 9 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026, but the extreme 3,821% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe illiquidity with only $62.64 open interest and a wide 36¢ spread. The price has collapsed dramatically from 13¢ to 4¢ over seven days, suggesting either a shift in meteorological expectations or thin positioning being unwound, though the neutral regime score indicates no clear directional conviction. With nearly 8 months until resolution and minimal trading volume ($60.64 in 24h), this market lacks the depth to reliably reflect true probability estimates.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 9 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T9 yes 100