Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Jun 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Jun 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic volatility, plummeting 51% over seven days from 39¢ to 19¢ before recovering to 23¢, suggesting significant new information arrived regarding Gabbard's tenure stability.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic volatility, plummeting 51% over seven days from 39¢ to 19¢ before recovering to 23¢, suggesting significant new information arrived regarding Gabbard's tenure stability. The extreme 3444% implied yield on the Yes side combined with modest $875.59 daily volume and tight 1¢ spread indicates this is a low-liquidity market where large positions could move prices substantially, creating potential arbitrage opportunities if sentiment shifts. With 45 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, the approaching resolution date combined with the market's high realized volatility (392%) suggests traders should monitor for confirmation that Gabbard remains in her position, as the current 23% probability may not fully reflect recent stabilization signals.
Resolution rules
If Tulsi Gabbard leaves as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGABBARDOUT-26-JUN01 yes 100