Will William Ruto leave office next in this set?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will William Ruto leave office next in this set?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2035. This market prices Ruto's departure at just 15¢ despite a notably asymmetric 103.2% annualized yield on the Yes side versus 1.3% on the No side, suggesting either significant underpricing of political risk or market skepticism about near-term turnover in Kenya.
Analysis
This market prices Ruto's departure at just 15¢ despite a notably asymmetric 103.2% annualized yield on the Yes side versus 1.3% on the No side, suggesting either significant underpricing of political risk or market skepticism about near-term turnover in Kenya. The extremely thin liquidity ($538 open interest, $67 daily volume) and zero spread indicate minimal trading activity, making the price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. With 3,182 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 9, this appears to be a speculative long-tail bet rather than a liquid consensus forecast.
Resolution rules
If the President of Kenya is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAFRICALEADEROUT-35-WR yes 100