Will the Democratic Party win the WV-01 House seat?

The Democratic contract is priced at an extreme 6¢ with a staggering 2,849.7% implied yield, reflecting West Virginia's 1st District's heavily Republican lean, yet the modest $25.91 daily volume and $36.8M open interest suggest limited conviction behind this pricing. The 1¢ spread and neutral regime score indicate relatively stable market conditions, though the 16 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution given the 201-day timeline to the November 2026 election. This appears to be a deep-value contrarian bet rather than a liquidity-driven mispricing, with the No side offering only 11.6% yield despite the district's Republican fundamentals.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WV-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade