Will the Republican Party win the WY-AL House seat?

This market reflects overwhelming confidence in Republican dominance of Wyoming's at-large House seat, with a 93¢ price implying near-certainty, though the extreme 2416.7% implied yield on the "No" outcome signals severe illiquidity on the contrarian side. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $30k open interest and tight 1¢ spread suggests this is a relatively stale, low-activity market where the price may not reflect recent information. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the high cliff risk index of 13 warrants caution—any unexpected political development could create sharp repricing, though the fundamental Republican lean in Wyoming makes this outcome highly probable.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WY-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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