Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.94 by Jun 30
Leader sits at 97% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $0.54
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
Above $0.74
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
33 days
Venue
Kalshi
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.44 by Jun 30?: Above $1.44
KXA100Q-26JUN30-1.440
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $0.54 by Jun 30?: Above $0.54
KXA100Q-26JUN30-0.540
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $0.94 by Jun 30?: Above $0.94
KXA100Q-26JUN30-0.940
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $0.74 by Jun 30?: Above $0.74
KXA100Q-26JUN30-0.740
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $0.84 by Jun 30?: Above $0.84
KXA100Q-26JUN30-0.840
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $2.04 by Jun 30?: Above $2.04
KXA100Q-26JUN30-2.040
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $0.64 by Jun 30?: Above $0.64
KXA100Q-26JUN30-0.640
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.24 by Jun 30?: Above $1.24
KXA100Q-26JUN30-1.240
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.34 by Jun 30?: Above $1.34
KXA100Q-26JUN30-1.340
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.84 by Jun 30?: Above $1.84
KXA100Q-26JUN30-1.840
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.74 by Jun 30?: Above $1.74
KXA100Q-26JUN30-1.740
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.04 by Jun 30?: Above $1.04
KXA100Q-26JUN30-1.040
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.54 by Jun 30?: Above $1.54
KXA100Q-26JUN30-1.540
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.14 by Jun 30?: Above $1.14
KXA100Q-26JUN30-1.140
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.94 by Jun 30?: Above $1.94
KXA100Q-26JUN30-1.940
Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $1.64 by Jun 30?: Above $1.64
KXA100Q-26JUN30-1.640
Analysis
This contract estimates a 97% probability that NVIDIA's A100 SXM4 GPU compute will cost more than $1.94 per hour by June 30, 2026. The high confidence reflects the broader decline in cloud compute pricing over recent years, where GPU hourly rates have compressed as supply expanded and competition intensified among cloud providers. Downward pressure on pricing would need to reverse sharply—through either major supply constraints, demand surge, or cartel-like pricing coordination—to keep rates below $1.94. The market is implicitly pricing this outcome as extremely unlikely within the next month. The resolution will depend on actual quoted pricing from major cloud providers (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure) as of June 30, and whether any significant supply or demand shocks materialize between now and then.
- ›Historical GPU pricing trends show consistent hourly rate compression over 2023–2026, with A100 costs dropping from ~$3+ to ~$0.50–$1.00 range across major providers
- ›Current spot and on-demand rates from AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure need to remain above $1.94/hour on June 30; pricing below this threshold would require no further compression from today's levels
- ›Supply of A100 capacity has grown significantly due to new data center deployments and competitor chips (H100, L40S, newer generations); reduced scarcity would support lower pricing
- ›Major cloud providers' pricing announcements or promotions between now and June 30 could influence realized hourly rates at contract expiration
- ›If GPU shortage emerges or enterprise AI workload demand surges unexpectedly, it could support higher pricing; conversely, new chip releases or reduced utilization would push rates down
What moved the line
- May 28Above $0.64↑33pp64→97¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $1.04↑32pp59→91¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $1.24↑21pp46→67¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $1.84↓14pp18→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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