Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...
Leader sits at 73% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
June 30
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
May 30
Spread
61pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$770
thin orderbook
Closes
May 31, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by
Analysis
This probability reflects the aggregated estimate that a magnitude 7.0 or stronger earthquake will occur somewhere on Earth by June 30, 2026. The 70% probability on the June 30 outcome, compared to 17% for May 30, suggests markets expect the event within the next month, though seismic activity cannot be reliably predicted. The current level reflects baseline earthquake frequencies—statistically, 7.0+ magnitude events occur roughly 15 times per year globally. The main drivers are recent tectonic activity patterns, historical seismic clusters in active zones, and standard recurrence intervals for major faults. The resolution will depend on USGS and international seismic monitoring agencies confirming whether a qualifying earthquake occurs before the deadline. Market pricing may shift with significant foreshock activity or changes in geological monitoring data.
- ›Global earthquake frequency data shows 7.0+ events occur at roughly 15-per-year baseline, implying ~21% probability for a 30-day window under uniform distribution
- ›The May 30 contract pricing (17¢) versus June 30 (70¢) suggests traders assign meaningful probability to the event occurring within the first 3 days versus the full month
- ›Recent tectonic data and USGS monitoring would be the primary source for updating estimates; no specific high-risk zone or forecasted event appears to be driving the current level
- ›The outcome will be determined by official USGS magnitude assessments and timestamp confirmation; borderline magnitude cases (6.9 vs 7.0) could create disputes
- ›Historical catalogs show clustering patterns in specific zones; an active swarm in high-risk regions (Ring of Fire, subduction zones) would likely push probabilities higher
What moved the line
- May 27June 30↑15pp59→74¢ · Polymarket
- May 25May 30↓7pp28→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 27May 30↓3pp19→16¢ · Polymarket
- May 28May 30↓3pp16→13¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (73% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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