SimpleFunctions
20 source contracts·Kalshi 20·refreshed just now·Closes Jun 15, 2026 · 18d

Will Adam Sandler attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 56% across 20 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

56%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

56%

20 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$2K

20 contracts

Closes

Jun 15, 2026

18 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 18% on 2026-05-28
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 1d

Bracket families

20 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Adin Ross attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$928

Cluster 2

Will Elon Musk attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$269

Cluster 3

Will Kid Rock attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$263

Cluster 4

Will Marco Rubio attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$224

Cluster 5

Will Jake Paul attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$216

Cluster 6

Will Donald Trump Jr. attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$182

Cluster 7

Will Spencer Pratt attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$68

Cluster 8

Will Pete Hegseth attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$65

Cluster 9

Will Dwayne Johnson attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$56

Cluster 10

Will Adam Sandler attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$54

Cluster 11

Will Barron Trump attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$52

Cluster 12

Will Mark Wahlberg attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$32

Cluster 13

Will Conor McGregor attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$17

Cluster 14

Will Jared Kushner attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$12

Cluster 15

Will Jason Statham attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$9

Cluster 16

Will Tiger Woods attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$9

Cluster 17

Will Tom Brady attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$4

Cluster 18

Will Joe Rogan attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$0

Cluster 19

Will Kash Patel attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$0

Cluster 20

Will Mike Tyson attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person

1 contract$0

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.