Will Adam Sandler attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 56% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
56%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
20 contracts
Closes
Jun 15, 2026
18 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Adin Ross attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Adin Ross attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Adin Ross
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-AROS
Cluster 2
Will Elon Musk attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Elon Musk attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Elon Musk
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-EMUS
Cluster 3
Will Kid Rock attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Kid Rock attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Kid Rock
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-KROC
Cluster 4
Will Marco Rubio attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Marco Rubio attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Marco Rubio
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-MRUB
Cluster 5
Will Jake Paul attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Jake Paul attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Jake Paul
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-JPAU
Cluster 6
Will Donald Trump Jr. attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Donald Trump Jr. attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Donald Trump Jr.
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-DJR
Cluster 7
Will Spencer Pratt attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Spencer Pratt attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Spencer Pratt
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-SPRA
Cluster 8
Will Pete Hegseth attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Pete Hegseth attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Pete Hegseth
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-PHEG
Cluster 9
Will Dwayne Johnson attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Dwayne Johnson attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Dwayne Johnson
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-DJOH
Cluster 10
Will Adam Sandler attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Adam Sandler attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Adam Sandler
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-ASAN
Cluster 11
Will Barron Trump attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Barron Trump attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Barron Trump
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-BTRU
Cluster 12
Will Mark Wahlberg attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Mark Wahlberg attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Mark Wahlberg
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-MWAH
Cluster 13
Will Conor McGregor attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Conor McGregor attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Conor McGregor
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-CMCG
Cluster 14
Will Jared Kushner attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Jared Kushner attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Jared Kushner
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-JKUS
Cluster 15
Will Jason Statham attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Jason Statham attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Jason Statham
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-JSTA
Cluster 16
Will Tiger Woods attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Tiger Woods attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Tiger Woods
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-TWOO
Cluster 17
Will Tom Brady attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Tom Brady attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Tom Brady
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-TBRA
Cluster 18
Will Joe Rogan attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Joe Rogan attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Joe Rogan
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-JROG
Cluster 19
Will Kash Patel attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Kash Patel attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Kash Patel
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-KPAT
Cluster 20
Will Mike Tyson attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person
Will Mike Tyson attend any UFC Freedom 250 event in person?: Mike Tyson
KXATTENDUFC250-26JUN-MTYS
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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