Will Jean-Michel Basquiat break his auction record this season?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
218 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jean-Michel Basquiat break his auction record this season
Will Jean-Michel Basquiat break his auction record this season?: Above $110.5M
KXAUCTIONRECORD-27-BAS-110500000
Cluster 2
Will Vincent van Gogh break their auction record this season
Will Vincent van Gogh break their auction record this season?: Above $117,180,000
KXAUCTIONRECORD-27-VIN-117180000
Cluster 3
Will Claude Monet break their auction record this season
Will Claude Monet break their auction record this season?: Above $110,747,000
KXAUCTIONRECORD-27-CLA-110747000
Cluster 4
Will Pablo Picasso break his auction record this season
Will Pablo Picasso break his auction record this season?: Above $179,365,000
KXAUCTIONRECORD-27-PIC-179365000
Cluster 5
Will Andy Warhol break his auction record this season
Will Andy Warhol break his auction record this season?: Above $195,040,000
KXAUCTIONRECORD-27-WAR-195040000
Analysis
This market estimates a 10% probability that a Jean-Michel Basquiat painting will sell for more than $110.5 million at auction within this season. The current record for a Basquiat work is $110.5 million, set in 2017. The low probability reflects the rarity of paintings reaching or exceeding this threshold, combined with limited availability of top-tier works entering the market in any given season. Comparable artists show similarly low probabilities for breaking their records, suggesting high thresholds are inherently difficult to exceed. Resolution depends on whether major auction houses schedule significant Basquiat works and whether collectors compete to push prices beyond the established record. The primary catalyst is the frequency and quality of Basquiat lots offered at major auctions through the end of the current season.
- ›Basquiat's record of $110.5M has stood since 2017, representing nine years without a breakthrough sale at this price level
- ›Only a handful of Basquiat works have ever sold above $50M, limiting the pool of paintings capable of setting records
- ›Market conditions, collector appetite, and competition between bidders fluctuate seasonally, directly affecting whether reserve prices are met and bids escalate
- ›The specific Basquiat works offered at Sotheby's and Christie's this season determine feasibility—catalogued pieces must be authenticated masterpieces with sufficient provenance
- ›Comparable artists (Monet at 3%, Picasso at 9%, Warhol at 11%) show record-breaking is uncommon even among the most valuable painters, establishing baseline rarity
What moved the line
- May 26Above $110,747,000↓14pp18→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 26Above $179,365,000↓6pp15→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Above $117,180,000↓5pp16→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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