Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets
Leader sits at 82% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 53%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
53¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
29pp
contested
24h volume
$92
thin orderbook
Closes
May 24, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets
Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4aed3f…dd01
Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x3b47cc…534e
Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: Shōnan Bellmāre (-1.5)
0xec8e41…059e
Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x852825…b7dc
Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: Montedio Yamagata (-1.5)
0x844f8c…2489
Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: Shōnan Bellmāre (-2.5)
0x7d9007…7d1b
Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: Montedio Yamagata (-2.5)
0x2d0aca…c100
Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x23d121…4ebe
Montedio Yamagata vs. Shōnan Bellmāre - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x08b854…8070
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 60% probability that both Montedio Yamagata and Shōnan Bellmāre will score goals in their upcoming match. This outcome sits well above the runner-up scenario (21%), suggesting traders expect offensive activity from both sides rather than a low-scoring or one-sided result. The probability reflects recent form, tactical tendencies, and defensive vulnerabilities of both J2 League clubs. Volume across contracts is minimal ($0 in 24-hour trading), indicating limited market depth and relatively few active traders pricing this event. The match result will definitively resolve whether both teams score, providing clear data on offensive efficiency and defensive solidity for each club.
- ›Recent goal-scoring records of both teams in their last 5–10 matches, including average goals per match and clean-sheet frequency
- ›Historical head-to-head scoring patterns between Montedio Yamagata and Shōnan Bellmāre in prior meetings
- ›Current injury or suspension status of key forwards and defensive players for either club that would affect scoring probability
- ›J2 League standings and relative league position, which typically correlates with offensive and defensive capability
- ›Market liquidity and trading volume remaining near zero, suggesting the 60% price may not reflect sufficient consensus or active price discovery
What moved the line
- May 24Montedio Yamagata (-2.5)↑38pp10→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 24Montedio Yamagata (-1.5)↑37pp15→52¢ · Polymarket
- May 24O/U 3.5↑30pp27→57¢ · Polymarket
- May 24O/U 2.5↑15pp50→65¢ · Polymarket
- May 24O/U 4.5↑13pp13→26¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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