Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R House
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$22K
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
178 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R House
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R House
0x0808de…a908
Analysis
This contract predicts Democrats will control the Senate while Republicans control the House following the 2026 midterm elections. At 3% probability, the market treats this outcome as unlikely. The Senate has historically favored Democrats more than the House in recent cycles, but achieving simultaneous control of both chambers requires a specific electoral alignment. The 2026 midterms will largely turn on economic conditions, approval ratings, and seat geography—particularly how many competitive districts and Senate races favor each party. Current polling and fundamentals drive expectations, though campaigns and external events will shape the final outcome. The resolution occurs on November 3, 2026, when midterm results are finalized. Between now and then, economic data, congressional actions, and internal party dynamics will test whether this scenario becomes more or less plausible.
- ›Current House composition and the number of seats Republicans would need to lose to yield Democratic control, compared to Senate dynamics favoring Democratic incumbents
- ›Economic indicators including inflation, employment, and GDP growth in the 12 months leading to November 2026, historically the strongest predictor of midterm performance
- ›Presidential approval rating and generic ballot polling trends in the spring and summer of 2026, which typically correlate with midterm outcomes
- ›Senate seat map composition, including number of Democratic versus Republican seats up for election and their competitiveness levels
- ›Unexpected political events or crises between May 2026 and November 2026 that could shift voter sentiment directionally
What moved the line
- May 62026 Midterms: D Senate, R House↓18pp19→1¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
- Will Jennifer Mazzuckelli be the Democratic nominee for OH-02David Joycelast 85% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Senate a Toss-Up
Prediction markets price Democrats as 85% favorites to flip the House while the Senate races at a coin-flip, with a full Democratic sweep now the single most likely outcome at 50%.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 21 h ago.