Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC
Leader sits at 57% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 23%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Beijing Guoan FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
23¢
Dalian Yingbo FC
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$86
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that Beijing Guoan FC will defeat Dalian Yingbo FC in their upcoming match. The 37% baseline reflects modest confidence in a Beijing Guoan victory, though notable disagreement exists between prediction venues—Polymarket traders assess the probability 9 percentage points higher than Kalshi participants. The probability will shift based on team form leading into the match, injury status of key players, and head-to-head historical performance. Resolution occurs when the match concludes and the final result is recorded. Current contract activity shows relatively balanced betting interest between a Dalian Yingbo win and a draw outcome, both priced near 23¢, while over/under markets suggest expectations for a low-scoring contest.
- ›Polymarket prices Beijing Guoan at 39% average versus 30% on Kalshi, indicating genuine analytical disagreement rather than fringe positions
- ›Draw probability is priced identically to Dalian Yingbo victory (23¢), suggesting markets view all three outcomes as roughly competitive
- ›Over/under markets clustered at 1.5 (82¢), 2.5 (61¢), and 3.5 (41¢) indicate strong expectation of low-scoring play
- ›Trading volume concentrated in win/draw/loss contracts ($45-39 24h) while total goals markets show minimal activity ($0-8), reflecting uncertainty resolution dependency
- ›Beijing Guoan represents the less-favored outcome despite home-venue implications for Chinese Super League fixtures
What moved the line
- May 2Draw (Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC)↓5pp36→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Dalian Yingbo FC↓3pp41→38¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.