CA-13 Primary Winners
Leader sits at 95% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Adam Gray
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
90¢
Kevin Lincoln II
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$42
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
8 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CA-13 Primary Winners
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Adam Gray wins the California 13th Congressional District Democratic primary. At 92%, the market assigns Gray a strong favorite status, though not certain. The high confidence likely reflects Gray's existing political profile, fundraising position, or polling data relative to competitors. The runner-up, Kevin Lincoln II, trades at 90%, indicating meaningful but narrowed odds, suggesting uncertainty about whether Gray maintains his advantage through election day. The primary will be settled on the June 2026 election date, when California holds its statewide primaries. Between now and then, campaign developments, endorsements, debate performance, turnout models, and late-breaking polling could shift these probabilities. The narrow 2-cent spread between the top two candidates indicates voters and market participants see this as closer than the headline number might initially suggest.
- ›Adam Gray's contract has traded at 92¢ with $220 in 24-hour volume, showing active pricing, while runner-up Kevin Lincoln II's contract at 90¢ has seen $0 recent volume, suggesting potential stale pricing or consensus on the top two
- ›The 2-cent gap between Gray (92¢) and Lincoln (90¢) indicates meaningful uncertainty about the ultimate winner despite Gray's slight edge
- ›Remaining candidates Daniel Garibay Rodriguez and Vin Kruttiventi trade at 3¢ and 8¢ respectively, suggesting low perceived viability but non-zero paths to victory
- ›The primary outcome will be determined on California's scheduled June 2026 primary election date
- ›Limited recent trading volume on most contracts may reflect incomplete information or settled expectations that could shift with new developments, polling, or media coverage
What moved the line
- May 25Vin Kruttiventi↓13pp35→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 22Vin Kruttiventi↑9pp22→31¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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