CA-41 Primary Winners
Leader sits at 96% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Linda Sánchez
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
Mitch Clemmons
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
7 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CA-41 Primary Winners
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Linda Sánchez wins the California 41st congressional district primary election. At 96%, the market is pricing in a very strong expectation of her victory, though primary elections retain inherent uncertainty. The high confidence likely stems from factors such as name recognition, prior electoral performance, or fundraising advantages. However, unexpected candidate withdrawals, major policy shifts, or turnout changes could alter the outcome. The primary election itself will resolve this question definitively on election day, which determines which candidate advances to the general election. Until then, late-breaking endorsements, campaign incidents, or shifts in voter sentiment could move probabilities, though the market currently shows minimal trading volume on alternative outcomes.
- ›Linda Sánchez is priced 6-8 percentage points higher than the second-place candidate (Mitch Clemmons at 88%), suggesting clear market differentiation between the top two contenders
- ›Trading volume has been zero on the three contracts outside Williams in the past 24 hours, indicating limited market conviction testing the current price hierarchy
- ›The 96¢ contract price for Sánchez versus 50¢ for De La Torre and 3¢ for Williams shows extreme concentration of probability mass on a single outcome
- ›The specific primary election date will conclusively resolve all four candidate contracts simultaneously, eliminating optionality once voting occurs
- ›Voter registration data, polling, and pre-primary fundraising totals are publicly available metrics that could validate or challenge the market's 96% assessment
What moved the line
- May 22Hector De La Torre↑14pp34→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 21Hector De La Torre↑9pp25→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 19Hector De La Torre↓6pp33→27¢ · Polymarket
- May 23Hector De La Torre↑3pp48→51¢ · Polymarket
- May 25Hector De La Torre↓3pp49→46¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In election 2026
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2026 House Race Tightens: Democrats slip 5¢, Republicans gain 3¢
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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