Will Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026 be exactly 0ㅤ
Leader sits at 84% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Exactly 0ㅤ
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
Exactly 1ㅤ
Spread
70pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$201
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
131 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026 be exactly
Will Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026 be exactly 0ㅤ?: Exactly 0ㅤ
KXCANCUTS-26DEC31-E0
Will Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026 be exactly 1ㅤ?: Exactly 1ㅤ
KXCANCUTS-26DEC31-E1
Will Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026 be exactly 3ㅤ?: Exactly 3ㅤ
KXCANCUTS-26DEC31-E3
Will Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026 be exactly 2ㅤ?: Exactly 2ㅤ
KXCANCUTS-26DEC31-E2
Analysis
This probability represents traders' assessment that the Bank of Canada will hold rates steady throughout 2026, making no cuts during the full calendar year. At 80%, the market is pricing in a strong likelihood of a pause, with much smaller odds assigned to exactly one cut (3%) or exactly two cuts (3%). The current level reflects the BoC's recent messaging on inflation stability and economic conditions. This would shift if inflation resurges, labor markets weaken significantly, or the central bank signals a different policy path. The key resolution points include BoC rate decisions scheduled throughout 2026, with particular attention to how the bank responds to any economic shocks or changes in inflation and unemployment data between now and year-end.
- ›Current Canadian inflation levels and trajectory relative to the BoC's 2% target through mid-2026
- ›US Federal Reserve policy signals and interest rate movements, which historically influence BoC decisions
- ›Canadian unemployment data and wage growth trends over the remainder of 2026
- ›Explicit forward guidance from BoC leadership in scheduled policy announcements and communications
- ›Economic growth forecasts and any recession indicators that emerge before the year closes
What moved the line
- Aug 17Exactly 0ㅤ↓11pp81→70¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Exactly 0ㅤ↑11pp70→81¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Exactly 1ㅤ↓6pp15→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Exactly 1ㅤ↑5pp11→16¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Exactly 0ㅤ↑3pp81→84¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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