Will China retail sales YoY for April 2026 be above 2.0%
Leader sits at 89% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 81%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 0.5%
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
81¢
Above 1.0%
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$142
thin orderbook
Closes
May 18, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will China retail sales YoY for April 2026 be above
Will China retail sales YoY for April 2026 be above 2.5%?: Above 2.5%
KXCHRETAIL-26MAY17-T2.5
Will China retail sales YoY for April 2026 be above 3.0%?: Above 3.0%
KXCHRETAIL-26MAY17-T3.0
Will China retail sales YoY for April 2026 be above 1.5%?: Above 1.5%
KXCHRETAIL-26MAY17-T1.5
Will China retail sales YoY for April 2026 be above 3.5%?: Above 3.5%
KXCHRETAIL-26MAY17-T3.5
Will China retail sales YoY for April 2026 be above 1.0%?: Above 1.0%
KXCHRETAIL-26MAY17-T1.0
Will China retail sales YoY for April 2026 be above 0.5%?: Above 0.5%
KXCHRETAIL-26MAY17-T0.5
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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