Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...
Leader sits at 17% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
June 30
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by
Analysis
This contract estimates a 16% probability that Taiwan's Premier Cho Jung-tai will leave office by a specified date. The low probability reflects that Cho currently holds a stable position within the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government under President Lai Ching-te. The main factors that could shift this probability are significant political crises, health issues, internal party conflicts, or major policy failures that force a resignation or removal. Taiwan's political calendar, including legislative developments and cross-strait tensions, would likely drive movement in this contract. The absence of immediate succession pressure or announced transitions explains the baseline low probability, though unexpected political shocks could rapidly change the assessment.
- ›Cho Jung-tai's current political standing and relationship with President Lai Ching-te, as measured by public statements and coalition stability
- ›Domestic political developments in Taiwan including DPP internal dynamics and potential legislative conflicts that could force ministerial changes
- ›Cross-strait developments with China that could trigger government restructuring or emergency transitions
- ›Cho's health status and any public indicators of his ability to continue in the role
- ›Comparison to similar Asian political figures' tenure stability and typical replacement timelines in Taiwan's government structure
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (17% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.