Club Aurora vs. CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 35%, Polymarket at 24% — a 11pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
18 contracts
Polymarket
24%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
11pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2.6M
20 contracts
Closes
Jun 29, 2028
787 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 35¢ · Polymarket 24¢ · 11pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (24¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (35¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
10 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will San Antonio
Will San Antonio vs Philadelphia be the matchup in the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Finals?: San Antonio vs Philadelphia
KXTEAMSINNBAF-26-SASPHI
Will San Antonio vs New York be the matchup in the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Finals?: San Antonio vs New York
KXTEAMSINNBAF-26-SASNYK
Will San Antonio win 4-0 in the Minnesota vs San Antonio 2nd Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: SAS wins 4-0
KXNBASERIESSCORE-26MINSASR2-SAS40
Will San Antonio win 4-2 in the Minnesota vs San Antonio 2nd Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: SAS wins 4-2
KXNBASERIESSCORE-26MINSASR2-SAS42
Will San Antonio vs Detroit be the matchup in the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Finals?: San Antonio vs Detroit
KXTEAMSINNBAF-26-SASDET
Will San Antonio vs Los Angeles L be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Basketball Western Conference Finals?: San Antonio vs Los Angeles L
KXTEAMSINNBAWF-26-SASLAL
Cluster 2
Game 1: Minnesota at San Antonio
Game 1: Minnesota at San Antonio Winner?: Minnesota
KXNBAGAME-26MAY04MINSAS-MIN
Game 1: Minnesota at San Antonio Winner?: San Antonio
KXNBAGAME-26MAY04MINSAS-SAS
Game 1: Minnesota at San Antonio: Total Points: Over 217.5 points scored
KXNBATOTAL-26MAY04MINSAS-217
Cluster 3
Minnesota vs San Antonio 2026 2nd Round series winner
Cluster 4
Will the San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball
Cluster 5
Game 2: Minnesota at San Antonio Winner
Cluster 6
2026 NBA Champion: San Antonio Spurs
2026 NBA Champion: San Antonio Spurs
0xb6b3d7…ae73
Cluster 7
San Antonio wins by over 12.5 points
San Antonio wins by over 12.5 points?: San Antonio wins by over 12.5 points
KXNBASPREAD-26MAY04MINSAS-SAS12
Cluster 8
Will Oklahoma City vs San Antonio be the matchup in the 2026 Pro Basketball Western Conference Finals
Cluster 9
Game 3: San Antonio at Minnesota Winner
Game 3: San Antonio at Minnesota Winner?: Minnesota
KXNBAGAME-26MAY08SASMIN-MIN
Cluster 10
nba playoffs: western conference champion : san antonio spurs
NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Champion : San Antonio Spurs
0xe3e857…6887
Analysis
This 34% probability reflects market expectations that CD San Antonio Bulo Bolo will win an upcoming match, though trading activity is sparse outside a few contracts. The gap between Kalshi (25%) and Polymarket (37%) suggests disagreement about the team's chances, possibly reflecting different trader bases or confidence levels. The highest-volume contracts actually reference the San Antonio Spurs' NBA championship odds rather than the Bolivian club, indicating potential data labeling confusion. Resolution depends on the specific match outcome, which hasn't been publicly dated in available contracts. Liquidity remains low across most CD San Antonio contracts, meaning prices could shift substantially on new information or limited trading volume.
- ›Contract mislabeling confusion: top volume contracts reference NBA teams (San Antonio Spurs) rather than CD San Antonio Bulo Bolo, suggesting potential data integrity issues
- ›12 percentage-point spread between venues indicates meaningful disagreement, with Polymarket pricing the team 48% higher than Kalshi
- ›Minimal liquidity on actual CD San Antonio Bulo Bolo match contracts ($81-$7 volumes) compared to NBA-related contracts (hundreds of thousands), raising questions about price reliability
- ›No clearly stated match date or opponent visible in contract descriptions, creating uncertainty about when resolution occurs
- ›Kalshi's lower pricing may reflect different market composition or information access versus Polymarket's higher assessment
What moved the line
- May 3Minnesota at San Antonio: Total Points: Over 217.5 points scored↑12pp35→47¢ · Kalshi
- May 2San Antonio↑10pp80→90¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Oklahoma City vs San Antonio↑10pp74→84¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Minnesota at San Antonio Winner?: San Antonio↑7pp75→82¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Oklahoma City vs San Antonio↑5pp68→73¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.