SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·17 source contracts·Kalshi 17·refreshed just now·Closes Sep 30, 2026 · 125d·6pp · 41h

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call

Leader sits at 89% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 89%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

89%

Consolidation

runner-up 89¢leader 89¢

Outcomes

17

winner-take-all

Runner-up

89¢

Falcon Flex

Spread

0pp

contested

24h volume

$449

thin orderbook

Closes

Sep 30, 2026

125 days

Venue

Kalshi

17 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayConsolidation: 88% (2 days, 2 points)Consolidation: 88% on 2026-05-28Falcon Flex: 88% (2 days, 2 points)Falcon Flex: 88% on 2026-05-28Acquisition: 79% on 2026-05-27
Consolidation88¢Falcon Flex88¢Acquisition79¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call

17 contracts$449
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Germany

KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRWD-26JUN03-GERM

23¢+17pp$234K

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Microsoft

KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRWD-26JUN03-MICR

74¢$97K

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Headwind

KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRWD-26JUN03-HEAD

49¢+23pp$53K

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: SGNL / Signal

KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRWD-26JUN03-SGNL

78¢$31K

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Claude

KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRWD-26JUN03-CLAU

62¢+28pp$14K

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Gen AI / Generative AI

KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRWD-26JUN03-GEN

42¢+12pp$11K

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Nvidia

KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRWD-26JUN03-NVID

71¢+7pp$10K

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tailwind

KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRWD-26JUN03-TAIL

24¢+8pp$0K

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Shadow

KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRWD-26JUN03-SHAD

17¢$0K

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Outage

KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRWD-26JUN03-OUTA

5¢$0K

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Hyperscaler

KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRWD-26JUN03-HYPE

79¢$0K

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Hack / Hacker

KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRWD-26JUN03-HACK

7¢+3pp$0K

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Falcon Flex

KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRWD-26JUN03-FALC

89¢+2pp$0K

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Consolidation

KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRWD-26JUN03-CONS

89¢+4pp$0K

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: China

KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRWD-26JUN03-CHIN

28¢$0K

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: AWS

KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRWD-26JUN03-AWS

75¢$0K

What will CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Acquisition

KXEARNINGSMENTIONCRWD-26JUN03-ACQU

80¢$0K

Analysis

CrowdStrike's next earnings call has a predicted 83% chance of discussing Falcon Flex, their endpoint protection offering, based on market prices from active traders. This probability reflects expectations about management's strategic emphasis during investor communications. The current level is driven by Falcon Flex's role as a core product in CrowdStrike's portfolio and recent market positioning around platform consolidation. Traders also assign meaningful probability (80%) to discussion of consolidation strategy, suggesting uncertainty about whether management will emphasize organic growth, platform bundling, or M&A opportunities. The earnings call itself will resolve this question directly through transcript and management commentary. Key catalysts include CrowdStrike's actual quarterly results announcement date, which typically follows standard SEC filing timelines, and any major product announcements or competitive moves in the weeks preceding the call. The relatively tight clustering of probabilities across top outcomes (70-83%) indicates genuine uncertainty about which topics management will prioritize.

  • Falcon Flex represents CrowdStrike's primary endpoint detection and response product; management typically highlights core business drivers in earnings calls
  • Consolidation and AWS integration topics both carry 73-80% probabilities, suggesting traders expect platform strategy discussion as a material component of messaging
  • No single outcome command dominant certainty; the 83% leader versus 80% runner-up gap is narrow, indicating this is a genuinely contested prediction
  • Quarterly earnings calls contain standardized prepared remarks before Q&A, making forward guidance and strategic priorities the most predictable discussion topics
  • Trading volume remains low ($0-6 24h volume on most contracts), suggesting limited liquidity and potentially wider confidence intervals than prices alone indicate

What moved the line

  • May 28Claude28pp3462¢ · Kalshi
  • May 28Headwind23pp2649¢ · Kalshi
  • May 28Germany17pp1330¢ · Kalshi
  • May 28Gen AI / Generative AI12pp3042¢ · Kalshi
  • May 28Tailwind8pp917¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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