Will ETH trimmed mean be below $2000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026
Leader sits at 22% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Below $2,000.00
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Below $1,750.00
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
23 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will ETH trimmed mean be below $
Will ETH trimmed mean be below $2000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $2,000.00
KXETHMINMON-ETH-26MAY31-200000
Will ETH trimmed mean be below $1500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $1,500.00
KXETHMINMON-ETH-26MAY31-150000
Will ETH trimmed mean be below $1750.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?: Below $1,750.00
KXETHMINMON-ETH-26MAY31-175000
Analysis
This market prices the probability that Ethereum's trimmed mean price will fall below $2,000 by May 31, 2026—roughly 29 days away. At 24%, the market implies strong confidence ETH will remain above this level through month-end. The current price level, recent volatility patterns, and macroeconomic conditions over the next month are the primary drivers. Related markets show traders assign much higher probability to ETH staying above $2,500 (55% implied), suggesting the $2,000 threshold is viewed as a more extreme downside scenario. Key catalysts include major cryptocurrency exchange flows, regulatory announcements, and broader equity market movements, though no single scheduled event dominates the resolution period. The market reflects elevated confidence in ETH holding above $2,000 but acknowledges tail-risk scenarios of sharp decline remain possible.
- ›ETH is trading significantly above $2,000, requiring a 60%+ price decline to resolve yes—a substantial single-month move
- ›Related contracts show 55% probability of ETH staying above $2,500, indicating markets price $2,000 as an extreme downside scenario
- ›No major protocol upgrade, regulatory decision, or scheduled economic event anchors this resolution period uniquely
- ›Cryptocurrency volatility patterns and macro risk sentiment over the next 29 days will be primary determinants of directional pressure
- ›Order book depth and liquidation cascades during volatile moves would influence whether sharp declines occur
What moved the line
- May 6Below $2,000.00↓12pp33→21¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Below $2,000.00↓7pp39→32¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Below $2,000.00↑7pp21→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Below $1,750.00↓5pp12→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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