What will Bitcoin outperform in April?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 17 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
22%
17 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$174K
17 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
207 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026” vs “What will happen before GTA VI”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 90,000
0xbb379a…f50e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 100,000
0xdaa486…990f
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 160,000
0x472c90…54b0
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000
0x63eaf4…7b01
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 10,000
0xd8a584…7d29
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000
0x885a6a…a859
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 30,000
0x903a13…69ef
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 150,000
0xa7b594…1cda
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 15,000
0xa885bf…3713
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 170,000
0x9affeb…4234
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 20,000
0x23fb92…69fc
Cluster 2
What will happen before GTA VI
What will happen before GTA VI?: Bitcoin hits $1m
0xbb57cc…89d2
What moved the line
- Jun 2↑ 90,000↓11pp50→39¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2↓ 55,000↑9pp54→63¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4↓ 55,000↑6pp65→71¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5↓ 50,000↑6pp54→60¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6↓ 55,000↑5pp75→80¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in bitcoin
- Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?last 44% · 1d
- Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?$76,500 or abovelast 52% · 1d
- Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?last 13% · 1d
- Will the Truflation Bitcoin Purchasing Power Index on Jun 1, 2026 be above 1065last 4% · 1d
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___last 55% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in bitcoin.
In bitcoin
Related reading
Bitcoin Sentiment Sours: Market Paints a Bearish Picture for Q3 2026
Bitcoin is down 2.31% on the day (IBIT), and prediction markets now give a 72% probability that BTC will drop below $55,000 in 2026, up 2 points today. The odds of reclaiming $100,000 by July 1 are just 1%, a stark reversal of relatively recent bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Sell-Off Deepens: Markets Price Sub-$50k Probability Above 50%
Bitcoin tumbled over 5%, dragging down IBIT and ETHE. Prediction markets now assign a 53% probability of BTC hitting $50k and a 39% chance of $45k by year-end. Risk-off sentiment dominates as traders flee crypto.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.