What will Bitcoin outperform in April?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 17 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
21%
17 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$48K
17 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
197 days
Bracket families
2 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026” vs “What will happen before GTA VI”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 100,000
0xdaa486…990f
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 90,000
0xbb379a…f50e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 20,000
0x23fb92…69fc
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 10,000
0xd8a584…7d29
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 15,000
0xa885bf…3713
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000
0x885a6a…a859
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 150,000
0xa7b594…1cda
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 170,000
0x9affeb…4234
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000
0x63eaf4…7b01
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 160,000
0x472c90…54b0
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 30,000
0x903a13…69ef
Cluster 2
What will happen before GTA VI
What will happen before GTA VI?: Bitcoin hits $1m
0xbb57cc…89d2
Recently closed in bitcoin
- Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?last 42% · 0d
- Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?$76,500 or abovelast 73% · 0d
- Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?last 9% · 0d
- Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2029last 17% · 26d
- Will BTC trimmed mean be above $87500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026last 3% · 40d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in bitcoin.
In bitcoin
Related reading
Bitcoin price action: ETF inflows push near-term odds higher
Bitcoin’s Aug 7, 2026 settlement price saw a sharp 5¢ move on the $63,000 tranche, driven by the largest single-day ETF net inflow in three weeks. The monthly trimmed mean above $65,000 now trades at 73¢, reflecting renewed bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Range-Bound but ETH Strength Points to Altcoin Season
Bitcoin prediction markets are steady with the Aug 7 price centered around $67K (67¢). Ethereum has a 59% chance of being above $2000 by end of August (ETHMAXMON). The crypto market is showing signs of rotation into altcoins, with XRP and SOL also seeing modest upward bias. No major catalyst today, but ETH’s relative strength is notable.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.