What price will Ethereum hit in April?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
22%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$22K
20 contracts
Top contract
48¢
$10K · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000
0xacb333…e369
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 800
0x717672…1612
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 4,000
0x9775cd…621c
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 6,500
0x0f0499…3a80
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 6,000
0x6132cc…918a
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 4,500
0xa3143f…7e21
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 10,000
0x201f51…a441
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500
0xb75b8c…aac8
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,000
0x1c4fd6…0a13
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 7,000
0x4ee2c6…4de0
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 7,500
0x4fc872…aaa1
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 3,500
0x42945e…9dfc
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 8,000
0xac0b43…33c8
Cluster 2
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 15 Gwei
0xe32a73…6063
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 5 Gwei
0xa6a9da…d16e
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 10 Gwei
0x9cd09f…d76a
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 40 Gwei
0xb5d84b…d386
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 20 Gwei
0x85d9ea…cacc
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 25 Gwei
0x9ea003…d5f2
What moved the line
- Apr 2825 Gwei↑30pp11→41¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 2925 Gwei↓24pp41→17¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29↑ 5,500↓17pp29→12¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29↑ 8,000↓17pp22→5¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 2820 Gwei↑17pp20→37¢ · Polymarket
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Bitcoin Collapses Below $80k Probability — $80k Strike Drops 27¢ in Single Day
The Bitcoin $80k April strike contract cratered -27¢ to just 21¢ today, confirming BTC is being priced well below $80,000. The $85k contract is at 2¢ effectively dead. IBIT is down 1% in traditional markets. Long-term BTC bulls face a market that's pricing continued weakness.
Bitcoin April $80k Target Falls -4¢ as BTC ETF Drops — End of Month Window Closing
With days left in April, the Bitcoin $80k target contract fell -4¢ to 43¢ and the $82.5k contract dropped -6¢ to 10¢ as IBIT slips 0.25%. Kalshi's end-of-month $80k trimmed mean contract is at 39¢, creating a near-arbitrage with Polymarket.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.