What price will Ethereum hit in April?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 18 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
16%
18 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$15K
18 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
197 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000
0xacb333…e369
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 6,000
0x6132cc…918a
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 3,500
0x42945e…9dfc
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 4,000
0x9775cd…621c
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500
0xb75b8c…aac8
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,000
0x1c4fd6…0a13
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 4,500
0xa3143f…7e21
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 800
0x717672…1612
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 7,500
0x4fc872…aaa1
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 6,500
0x0f0499…3a80
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 7,000
0x4ee2c6…4de0
Cluster 2
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 15 Gwei
0xe32a73…6063
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 5 Gwei
0xa6a9da…d16e
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 10 Gwei
0x9cd09f…d76a
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 40 Gwei
0xb5d84b…d386
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 20 Gwei
0x85d9ea…cacc
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 25 Gwei
0x9ea003…d5f2
Analysis
This market estimates a 16% chance that Ethereum will trade below $2,000 in April 2026. The current probability reflects recent price action and broader crypto market sentiment. Upward pressure on this probability would come from sustained macroeconomic stress, reduced institutional demand for Ethereum, or a significant technical breakdown in the broader digital assets space. Downward pressure would result from continued network adoption, recovery in crypto valuations, or positive regulatory developments. The resolution depends entirely on Ethereum's spot price in April 2026, though major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy decisions, institutional crypto adoption trends, and any significant Ethereum protocol upgrades or security events occurring before then.
- ›Ethereum's current price relative to $2,000 — the further above this level the price trades, the lower the probability of breaching it
- ›Historical volatility patterns and support levels — Ethereum would need to decline roughly 70%+ from typical 2026 price ranges to hit $2,000
- ›Macroeconomic conditions and risk-asset sentiment — recession fears or credit events would increase the likelihood of such a sharp decline
- ›Aggregate contract pricing across Polymarket shows higher probabilities for prices between $3,500 and $4,500 in 2026, suggesting markets expect prices well above the $2,000 threshold
- ›Time remaining until April 2026 resolution — with several months until expiration, substantial new information could shift this probability materially
What moved the line
- Jun 1210 Gwei↑24pp10→34¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15↓ 1,500↓11pp81→70¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 125 Gwei↑9pp9→18¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1310 Gwei↑7pp34→41¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1810 Gwei↑7pp37→44¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in bitcoin
- US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 600–700Blast 33% · 0d
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 120,000last 86% · 0d
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000last 72% · 0d
- Bitcoin all time high by ___last 7% · 0d
- When will Bitcoin hit $150k?: by December 31, 2026last 6% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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