SimpleFunctions
Crypto20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 2 min ago

What price will Ethereum hit in April?

Bracket↓ 2,000

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 20 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

22%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

22%

20 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$22K

20 contracts

Top contract

48¢

$10K · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 31% (26 days, 26 points)Aggregate: 31% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 26d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026

14 contracts$22K

Cluster 2

What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027

6 contracts$7

What moved the line

  • Apr 2825 Gwei30pp1141¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 2925 Gwei24pp4117¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 29↑ 5,50017pp2912¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 29↑ 8,00017pp225¢ · Polymarket
  • Apr 2820 Gwei17pp2037¢ · Polymarket

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.