Will Tulsi Gabbard announce their departure as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Aug 1, 2026?

The market has experienced significant downward price pressure, dropping 12 cents over seven days (from 53¢ to 41¢), suggesting reduced conviction in a departure announcement within the 106-day window. The extreme implied yield of 495% on the Yes side reflects very thin liquidity ($1,423.82 open interest) and a tight 3¢ spread, making this a high-risk, low-conviction market where small position sizes could cause outsized price swings. With a realized volatility of 375% and an info arrival rate of 2.2 events per hour, the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty around Gabbard's tenure, though the neutral regime and modest 40¢ price suggest the base case currently favors her remaining in the role through August 2026.

Resolution rules

If Tulsi Gabbard leaves (or announces they will leave) as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade