SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·2 source contracts·Polymarket 2·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2028 · 582d

Will GMGN launch a token by ___

Leader sits at 61% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

61%

December 31, 2027

runner-up 10¢leader 61¢

Outcomes

2

winner-take-all

Runner-up

10¢

December 31, 2026

Spread

51pp

dominant leader

24h volume

$7K

modest

Closes

Jan 1, 2028

582 days

Venue

Polymarket

2 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayDecember 31, 2027: 61% (24 days, 3 points)December 31, 2027: 61% on 2026-05-27December 31, 2026: 10% (24 days, 21 points)December 31, 2026: 10% on 2026-05-26
December 31, 202761¢December 31, 202610¢
Top 2 candidates by current price · 24d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • May 22December 31, 202732pp5082¢ · Polymarket
  • May 27December 31, 202721pp8261¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in crypto

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 2 contracts (61% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.