Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.43 by Jun 30
Leader sits at 97% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $1.63
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
Above $1.73
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
33 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.33 by Jun 30?: Above $3.33
KXH100Q-26JUN30-3.330
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.13 by Jun 30?: Above $2.13
KXH100Q-26JUN30-2.130
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.73 by Jun 30?: Above $2.73
KXH100Q-26JUN30-2.730
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.53 by Jun 30?: Above $2.53
KXH100Q-26JUN30-2.530
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.83 by Jun 30?: Above $2.83
KXH100Q-26JUN30-2.830
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.23 by Jun 30?: Above $2.23
KXH100Q-26JUN30-2.230
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $1.93 by Jun 30?: Above $1.93
KXH100Q-26JUN30-1.930
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.33 by Jun 30?: Above $2.33
KXH100Q-26JUN30-2.330
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.93 by Jun 30?: Above $2.93
KXH100Q-26JUN30-2.930
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.13 by Jun 30?: Above $3.13
KXH100Q-26JUN30-3.130
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.23 by Jun 30?: Above $3.23
KXH100Q-26JUN30-3.230
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.63 by Jun 30?: Above $2.63
KXH100Q-26JUN30-2.630
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.03 by Jun 30?: Above $3.03
KXH100Q-26JUN30-3.030
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.43 by Jun 30?: Above $3.43
KXH100Q-26JUN30-3.430
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.43 by Jun 30?: Above $2.43
KXH100Q-26JUN30-2.430
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.53 by Jun 30?: Above $3.53
KXH100Q-26JUN30-3.530
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.03 by Jun 30?: Above $2.03
KXH100Q-26JUN30-2.030
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $1.83 by Jun 30?: Above $1.83
KXH100Q-26JUN30-1.830
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $1.73 by Jun 30?: Above $1.73
KXH100Q-26JUN30-1.730
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $1.63 by Jun 30?: Above $1.63
KXH100Q-26JUN30-1.630
Analysis
Prediction markets currently assess a 97% probability that NVIDIA H100 SXM compute pricing will remain above $1.73 per hour by June 30, 2026, based on trading contracts across multiple price thresholds. The high confidence reflects expectations that near-term pricing floors will hold, though higher price brackets ($2.43, $2.73) show notably lower confidence (around 86-88%), suggesting meaningful uncertainty about upward pressure. Key drivers include current GPU supply dynamics, enterprise demand for AI compute capacity, and competitive offerings from alternative providers. The resolution depends on official pricing data from cloud providers as of June 30, providing a concrete measurement point roughly one month away. Contract volume concentrates around the $1.73–$2.03 range, indicating market consensus clusters around lower-to-mid price expectations rather than premium tiers.
- ›Current H100 pricing across major cloud providers (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure) relative to the $1.73–$2.43 thresholds, which can shift with supply changes or competitive repricing
- ›GPU supply availability and competing demand for H100s versus alternative accelerators (A100, H200, custom TPUs) affecting effective market rates
- ›Enterprise AI workload growth and willingness to pay premium rates for established NVIDIA hardware versus newer alternatives
- ›Contract price distribution shows 97% confidence only at $1.73 but drops to ~86% at $2.43, indicating market expects prices to remain in the $1.73–$2.23 band rather than surge further
- ›Time-to-resolution (33 days) leaves room for spot market volatility, bulk contract negotiations, or supply disruptions that could drive prices up or down
What moved the line
- May 28Above $2.73↑46pp38→84¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $1.83↑41pp56→97¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $2.13↑37pp52→89¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $2.03↑37pp54→91¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $1.73↑37pp60→97¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBCDemocratlast 87% · 0d
- TX-18 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 89% · 1d
- TX-33 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 90% · 1d
- Will Trump say "Autism" before Apr 27, 2026last 15% · 3d
- Will Brentford be Relegated from English Premier League in 2025-26 Seasonlast 94% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.