Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $0.99 by Dec 31
Leader sits at 97% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 96%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $0.99
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
96¢
Above $1.29
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$685
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
217 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $4.89 by Dec 31?: Above $4.89
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-4.890
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $5.49 by Dec 31?: Above $5.49
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-5.490
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $5.19 by Dec 31?: Above $5.19
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-5.190
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.79 by Dec 31?: Above $2.79
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-2.790
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.19 by Dec 31?: Above $2.19
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-2.190
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $6.09 by Dec 31?: Above $6.09
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-6.090
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $6.39 by Dec 31?: Above $6.39
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-6.390
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $4.29 by Dec 31?: Above $4.29
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-4.290
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $4.59 by Dec 31?: Above $4.59
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-4.590
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.49 by Dec 31?: Above $2.49
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-2.490
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $3.99 by Dec 31?: Above $3.99
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-3.990
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $5.79 by Dec 31?: Above $5.79
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-5.790
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $3.69 by Dec 31?: Above $3.69
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-3.690
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $1.29 by Dec 31?: Above $1.29
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-1.290
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $0.99 by Dec 31?: Above $0.99
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-0.990
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $1.89 by Dec 31?: Above $1.89
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-1.890
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $1.59 by Dec 31?: Above $1.59
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-1.590
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $6.69 by Dec 31?: Above $6.69
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-6.690
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $3.39 by Dec 31?: Above $3.39
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-3.390
Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $3.09 by Dec 31?: Above $3.09
KXH200MAX-26DEC31-3.090
Analysis
This market reflects an estimated 97% probability that NVIDIA's H200 GPU will cost more than $0.99 per compute hour by year-end 2026. The high probability suggests traders expect H200 pricing to remain well above this threshold, with secondary markets pricing much higher price points ($5-6+ per hour) at 31-43% odds. The core drivers appear to be current H200 supply constraints and enterprise demand, which would need to shift dramatically for prices to fall below $0.99. The key uncertainty centers on whether expanded GPU supply from competing vendors or macroeconomic demand destruction could force significant price compression within the next seven months. Any major announcements regarding new competitive offerings, significant cloud provider pricing changes, or shifts in enterprise AI spending could move these probabilities.
- ›Current H200 market pricing and published cloud provider rates relative to the $0.99 threshold
- ›Supply trajectory for H200 units and competitive GPU availability through December 2026
- ›Enterprise AI demand levels and willingness to pay for premium compute resources
- ›Price competition from alternative GPU vendors and their market share gains
- ›Historical precedent for GPU pricing trends during equivalent market conditions
What moved the line
- May 28Above $0.99↑32pp65→97¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $1.59↑27pp63→90¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $3.39↑27pp33→60¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $1.89↑26pp49→75¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above $4.29↑22pp25→47¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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