How many jobs added in April?
Leader sits at 32% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
50k – 100k
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
0 – 50k
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$5K
modest
Closes
May 8, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many jobs added in April
How many jobs added in April?: 150k – 200k
0x73f2be…f953
How many jobs added in April?: <-50k
0xc47368…5d74
How many jobs added in April?: 0 – 50k
0x825d95…6c67
How many jobs added in April?: -50k – 0
0x2e53bb…93b2
How many jobs added in April?: 50k – 100k
0x88d322…7eb3
How many jobs added in April?: 100k – 150k
0x50fb3b…47bd
Analysis
The market currently assigns 38% probability to April 2026 nonfarm payroll additions falling between -50,000 and zero — a negative or near-flat employment outcome. This reflects uncertainty around labor demand heading into late spring. The probability is shaped by two primary forces: forward-looking economic signals (consumer spending, business investment, manufacturing activity) that influence hiring momentum, and baseline seasonal patterns in April employment. The April jobs report, scheduled for early May 2026, will directly resolve this contract by showing actual nonfarm payroll change. Current pricing suggests markets view a modest positive employment gain as more likely than contraction, but weakness remains plausible given ongoing economic crosscurrents.
- ›The competing contract for 'above 50,000 jobs' trades at 61¢ while this -50k to 0 band is at 38¢, indicating net positive jobs are favored but meaningful downside risk persists
- ›Kalshi's 'above -100,000' contract trades near 96¢, showing near-consensus that severe employment losses are unlikely
- ›April seasonal adjustments typically add jobs; deviations from historical patterns or unusual labor-force movements could shift probabilities significantly
- ›The volume concentration in 50k-70k thresholds suggests most uncertainty clusters around whether additions reach 50,000–70,000 rather than the negative-to-zero outcome
- ›Manufacturing, unemployment claims data, and real-time hiring signals in the weeks before the May release will likely shift this probability
What moved the line
- May 650k – 100k↑20pp13→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 6150k – 200k↓12pp21→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 6-50k – 0↓12pp19→7¢ · Polymarket
- May 250k – 100k↓10pp33→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 350k – 100k↓10pp23→13¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in economy
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- Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?last 3% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.