Will the Chennai Super Kings qualify for the 2026 IPL Final
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
4 contracts
Closes
Jun 14, 2026
21 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will the Rajasthan Royals qualify for the 2026 IPL Final
Will the Rajasthan Royals qualify for the 2026 IPL Final?: Rajasthan Royals
KXIPLFINALS-26-RR
Cluster 2
Will the Sunrisers Hyderabad qualify for the 2026 IPL Final
Will the Sunrisers Hyderabad qualify for the 2026 IPL Final?: Sunrisers Hyderabad
KXIPLFINALS-26-SRH
Cluster 3
Will the Royal Challengers Bengaluru qualify for the 2026 IPL Final
Will the Royal Challengers Bengaluru qualify for the 2026 IPL Final?: Royal Challengers Bengaluru
KXIPLFINALS-26-RCB
Cluster 4
Will the Gujarat Titans qualify for the 2026 IPL Final
Will the Gujarat Titans qualify for the 2026 IPL Final?: Gujarat Titans
KXIPLFINALS-26-GT
Analysis
This 18% probability reflects market expectations that Chennai Super Kings will not reach the 2026 IPL Final. The market is pricing CSK as an underperformer relative to franchises like Royal Challengers Bengaluru (33%) and Gujarat Titans (27%), suggesting concerns about squad strength or recent performance trends. Team composition changes during the auction phase and early-season results will be critical drivers—a strong start would increase their chances substantially, while injuries to key players or poor initial performances would likely push the probability lower. The final probability will resolve based on CSK's actual finish position in the playoff standings.
- ›CSK is priced significantly lower than RCB and GT, indicating market concern about relative squad quality or recent form
- ›Early IPL 2026 match results (May-June) will provide concrete data on team performance and influence probability movement
- ›Key player availability and fitness status, particularly aging core players, directly impacts CSK's playoff qualification odds
- ›CSK's historical consistency shows they qualify for playoffs in most seasons, but the 18% reflects below-average chances this specific year
- ›The playoff system structure requires finishing top-4 out of 10 teams to qualify for the final—a threshold affected by head-to-head matchups and net run rate
What moved the line
- May 19Sunrisers Hyderabad↑29pp2→31¢ · Kalshi
- May 20Gujarat Titans↑29pp7→36¢ · Kalshi
- May 20Royal Challengers Bengaluru↑27pp17→44¢ · Kalshi
- May 17Royal Challengers Bengaluru↓25pp28→3¢ · Kalshi
- May 17Gujarat Titans↓21pp23→2¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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- Brentford at Manchester Unitedlast 64% · 0d
- Brentford wins by over 2.5 goalslast 19% · 0d
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FClast 60% · 0d
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC - More Marketslast 83% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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