Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?

This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 578% and a dramatic 21-cent rally over seven days (from 30¢ to 51¢), suggesting significant recent news flow or shifting geopolitical expectations around Iran negotiations. The 53¢ price implies roughly even odds, but the asymmetric implied yields of 498.6% on both sides reflect the binary nature and time decay pressure with 73 days to expiry, creating substantial cliff risk despite the low 1-point spread and tight liquidity ($32.5k open interest). The high information arrival rate of 3.8 events per hour and vol ratio of 3.27 indicate this market is actively repricing on incoming developments, making it sensitive to near-term diplomatic signals or policy announcements.

Resolution rules

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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